McCain balances Latino voters, GOP base...

McCain balances Latino voters, GOP base


By Wayne Slater
The Dallas Morning News, May 27, 2008



Denver -- With Barack Obama his likely opponent in the fall, John McCain sees an opportunity to make inroads among Hispanic voters by touting himself as a different kind of Republican.

But in doing so, Mr. McCain runs a considerable risk: further alienating the GOP base, which already mistrusts him on immigration issues.

'It's a tightrope,' said Celia Muñoz of the National Council of La Raza, a nonpartisan Hispanic advocacy group. 'How does he convince Latinos that you're on their side while convincing the rabidly anti-immigration faction of his own party?'

Nowhere is that tightrope more evident than Colorado, one of a handful of fall battleground states where the Hispanic vote could be crucial to winning the White House.

President Bush won Colorado in 2000 and 2004, in part by wooing Latinos. He got 35 percent of the Hispanic vote nationally eight years ago and 44 percent in 2004, according to exit polls.

Colorado has been trending Democratic, with the party winning the governor's office, a U.S. Senate seat and control of the Legislature.

Mr. Obama, who is close to clinching the Democratic nomination, has struggled to win Hispanic support in his primary duel with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. The McCain campaign sees that as a political opening for the Arizona Republican, who in recent weeks has sharpened his appeal to Hispanics.

Mr. McCain has launched a Spanish-language Web site, aired TV spots in Spanish emphasizing his military service and, at a Cinco de Mayo event in Phoenix, declared 'everything about our Hispanic voters is tailor-made to the Republican message.'

Gil Cisneros of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly of Colorado, who is vice chairman of the McCain campaign in the state, said the Arizona senator has a reputation among Hispanics as patriotic, family-oriented and moderate on immigration.

He said Mr. McCain's sponsorship of last year's failed legislation to create a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants will be a strong selling point.

'He stood up for immigration when that was not popular, so a lot of Hispanics are remembering that,' Mr. Cisneros said. 'He'll probably reach the high-water mark that George Bush set.'

Mr. McCain has since backed away from his immigration bill, which drew fierce opposition among conservatives. He now says the first priority must be to secure the borders.

State Sen. David Schultheis of Colorado Springs said that mixed message on immigration is one reason Mr. McCain has struggled to generate enthusiasm in the GOP base.

'There's a lot of Republicans on the fence right now as to whether they're even going to vote for McCain as president,' Mr. Schultheis said.

He cited reasons to vote for Mr. McCain: his military service, support of the war in Iraq, tax policies and promise to appoint conservative judges, but he added: 'How can you say you are strong on national security and yet you're willing to let our borders be porous? It doesn't compute. It throws a question in your mind: Who is this guy? What does he really believe?'

Mr. Schultheis, who joined the anti-illegal immigrant Minutemen on the Arizona border two years ago, calls illegal immigration 'an infection' that 'starts small and before long takes the body over.'

The immigration debate has cost the GOP Hispanic support, say Republican analysts, including former White House political adviser Karl Rove.

In the 2006 midterm elections, Republicans received only 30 percent of the Hispanic vote – down 10 percentage points from two years earlier. A Pew Hispanic Center study in December found that 57 percent of Hispanic registered voters called themselves Democrats, while just 23 percent considered themselves Republicans.

Polly Baca, the first Latina elected to the Colorado Senate and a long-time Democratic activist, said that 'the anti-Latino rhetoric' has created an inhospitable political environment in the Hispanic-rich swing states of Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, which Mr. Bush won in 2004.

Ms. Baca said Mr. McCain's retreat on the immigration bill and his support of the Iraq war – 'which has caused the deaths of a lot of young Hispanics' – will hurt him in November.

Veteran South Texas political organizer Billy Leo agreed, but cautioned that long-running tensions between black and Hispanic voters could accrue to Mr. McCain's favor in the fall.

'Right now, Obama has a problem with the Latino vote, a very serious problem,' said Mr. Leo. 'If any Republican ever had a chance to get the Mexicano vote, it would be McCain.'

David Hardt, an uncommitted Democratic super-delegate from Dallas, said Democrats must unite behind the eventual nominee.

'There's a real divide between the black community and the Hispanic community, and that's unfortunate,' he said. 'The Democratic leadership is aware of this and wants to see how Obama is going to cross that bridge.'

Pat Waak, chairwoman of the Colorado Democratic Party, dismissed fears that Hispanics won't vote for Mr. Obama, though – or conversely, that blacks would stay home if Mrs. Clinton were to head the ticket.

As a measure of the McCain camp's hopes of capitalizing on Mr. Obama's perceived weakness with Hispanics, the presumptive GOP nominee has accepted an invitation to speak to La Raza's annual convention in July. The Democrats also have been invited.

The decision to speak to the group has sparked protest on conservative and anti-immigration Web sites. Inside the McCain camp, the political calculus is that he can match Mr. Bush's success with Hispanics.

'Clearly the majority of Latino voters preferred Senator Clinton,' said Ms. Muñoz, senior vice president of La Raza. 'The question is, where do those voters go in an Obama-McCain race? And we don't know the answer to that yet.'



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